Wind Turbines in the Mountains

Investment in the National Electriciy Market (NEM) to 2030 Given Policy Uncertainty 

The National Electricity Market (NEM) is transitioning from being a predominantly coal/ thermal market to one that is increasingly supplied by variable renewable energy (VRE) (wind and solar). As well as the challenges this will increasingly present the market operator (AEMO) from a technical perspective in ensuring a reliable and strong grid, a considerable challenge for industry participants is to make decisions about where to invest for the future. Adding to the challenge, and creating considerable uncertainty, is that there is currently no Federal renewable energy target or carbon price signal post 2020. We analysed a number of scenarios of how the National Electricity Market (NEM) may evolve over the next 10 years, in order to identify what additional investment would be required under those scenarios to balance the market in terms of both energy and dispatchable capacity. Specifically, we have looked at three scenarios: (1) currently committed projects and withdrawals only, (2) the States meeting their respective renewable energy targets, and (3) all proposed projects being built. This report presents our key findings and conclusions.

Here's a link to the full report: National Electricity Market: Uncertainty to 2030

Solar Panel Installation

Australia's Solar PV Market

Australia continues to be a world leader in the uptake of small-scale solar PV for homes and businesses. Utility-scale solar PV is also just starting to take-off, with a doubling of installed capacity over 2018, and this is going to increasingly impact the National Electricity Market (NEM). This report looks at expected growth, likely implications in the NEM, and ways to manage it. 

Here's a link to the full report: Australia's Solar PV Market.

An Era of Airline Profitability: A Financial Analysis of Qantas Airways  

Qantas has staged a remarkable bounce back to profitability since its all-time low in 2014. This year could be another record profit for the airline. I have performed a detailed analysis to dissect the key drivers of the turnaround, and to determine if its cyclical or structural, and whether or not it’s sustainable.

Here's a link to the full report: An Era of Airline Profitability

How Green Are Electric Vehicles? 

As the the world strives works toward a sustainable energy future, we rely on new technology to help us lower emissions and still maintaining our lifestyle. However, sometimes going green isn’t as straight forward as we think. Arnhem Partner, Bruce Low, looks at Electric Vehicles (EVs) in Australia and runs the numbers to see how green they really are.

See publication How Green are Electric Vehicles?

Disruptive Technologies in the Electricity Industry: Solar PV, Battery Storage and Electric Vehicles  

Solar Photovoltaic (PV) panels on house rooftops has already had an impact on the electricity industry, and home battery storage and electric vehicles are other disruptive technologies that are starting to gain traction. In this report, I discuss the potential impact of these ‘disruptors’ on the electricity industry and its various players. 

Here's a link to the full report: Disruptive Technologies in the Electricity Industry

The Shale Explosion - The US Shale Oil & Gas Boom and Impediments to US Energy Independence

Arnhem has had an in-depth look at US shale oil and gas boom and the impediments to US energy independence and impacts on global markets.

The white paper explores:

  • The implications of increased US oil and gas production, taking dependence on crude oil into consideration

  • The impact of US shale gas on Asian Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) prices

  • The impact of US shale gas on the US economy and manufacturing sector

  • How these themes influence Arnhem’s view of the energy industry.

Here's a link to the full report: The Shale Explosion

The Australian East Coast Gas Market - 

As the three Queensland LNG Projects ramped up production, total East Coast gas demand increased from ~600 Petajoules (PJ) per annum to ~2,000PJ. This report analyses the impact of these LNG exports projects on the East Coast gas market. 

Here's a link to the full report: Australian East Coast Gas Market